Just a thought - stop bloody soldering the RAM and the SSDs. That partially transfers the burden on to the customers and makes their product more repairable ... Mac Minis (with un-soldered RAM and HDD / SSDs) used to be sold with minimum 4 GB RAM, if I remember right). This, way, you can still sell devices with lower RAM, and customers can upgrade in the future when supply increases.
It takes up more space and costs more (connectors are surprisingly expensive), as well as adding an electrical overhead, while most (yes, not all) customers don't take advantage of it.
Another problem is locked hardware. Newest Synology hardware has lifted the HDD locks but still doesn't allow third party SSD and RAM. Mac Mini storage upgrade is a DIY solution, why not use the standard M.2 2230 slot?
* Absorb the impact by some margin
* Slash base models (which they are already doing)
* Efficient software - So, end user experience is not affected.
* Direct Price hike always be an option.
I think it's kind of inevitable for somebody to take up a RAM factory to sell for normal consumers and brands even if it means less profit the sales would be much bigger. The question is if somebody is kind enough to do so.
Got a shitty PC with 32gb ddr5 now the ram alone is almost worth as much as the purchase price of it all. It is playing up.. normally I'd return it to Amazon but...
But memory is a quite a specialist manufacturing process, they couldn't just send a design to TSMC and get the same quality and cost. It would take years (decades) to create their own factories that might be able to produce competitive memory. If they use a third party to manufacture with existing skills (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron etc) they might as well just use their designs too (and buy their chips)
But who knows. Their unified memory architecture across core types already puts them in a different design space. Maybe that design space leads them to further opportunities for memory architecture differentiation.
I could see them (1) taking the two processing chips that make up an Ultra in coming generations, (2) fabbed with logic on top, and power distributed on the back side, as Intel is going for, and (3) sandwiching the logic sides around a layer of unified RAM, with (4) massive optical linking distributed across the surfaces, resulting in (5) unbelievable bandwidths and parallelism we couldn't dream of today.
And then, (6) announcing it at WWDC 2029 and (7) taking my money 5 minutes after the midnight when pre-order's start.
Apple knows better than to buy a pile of incompetent smugs. Intel was rock bottom before Europe determined it was a “strategic move”[1] to buy factories in Europe from the only manufacturer that hasn’t innovated since 20 years, quickly followed by the US. In both cases, governments aren’t the most savvy spenders.
[1] A “strategic” expense is named like this when you can’t justify it by any rational means.
Ex-Apple kernel engineer here, Apple will deal with the memory shortage by making software more efficient in ram usage. Apple will just make every aspect of the system more and more memory efficient. They've done it before over and over and can do it again.
This is a great long term strategy despite what the share holders would want to believe. If you increase efficiency even on lower end devices, you will get people coming back for more. It isn't the sale today, it is the sale tomorrow that matters.
I disagree, there is low-hanging fruit Firefox is leaving on the table. The main thing that comes to mind is tab unloading. They don't unload tabs automatically like chrome can.
I was pleasantly surprised at the tab unloading settings under "memory saver" in ungoogled-chromium.
I believe that Firefox does it but not as frequently as Chrome does, but don't quote me on it. However, I am using a "tab suspender" addon on firefox to control how fast the unloading happens on tabs that are not active.
> But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rate, then maybe we won’t work with you when all this settles down. You know things are going to settle down. These things are always cyclical. There’s never been a semiconductor boom that’s not followed by a semiconductor bust. Never. And they know it.
I have to think that the RAM suppliers wouldn't be that easy to intimidate with threats, since they know perfectly well how few alternatives Apple has. And they are also perfectly aware that Apple will play hardball with them when the market turns, regardless of whether they were nice to Apple now.
Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.
They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.
No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this.
Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.
RAM prices surging in the AI hype era does not mean they'll stay there for decades (see xAI already letting one data center go), and it would take a long time for Apple to become competitive.
Should they also start CPU fabs? Batteries? Lithium mines?
Operating a FAB requires employing PhDs that are willing to work 8 hours shifts with no breaks (each removal of a bunnysuit is an expensive exercise), and there’s no reason to believe SpaceX is capable of hiring such people.
There was a point made recently by Musk that the whole clean room idea is outdated if you can just ensure the path the silicon takes from wafer to lidding is clean. Seems solvable to me, but leaves me wondering why it hasn’t been done before. I assume there is no human handling of raw/etched silicon now anyway, so why does the whole room need to be clean?
You could probably apply that logic to any innovation in any industry no?
Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles.
I can understand that Musk does not have the most palatable personality, but floating ideas and at least attempting innovation regardless of outcome over a long time is a net positive for society and should not be discouraged.
In the Tim Cook era when Apple needs to lock down the supply of a commodity part, they have a history of buying a dedicated manufacturing line for a manufacturing partner.
There's a bunch of chinese DRAM companies currently playing catchup to get closer to modern densities. Could Apple buy one of those? I'm guessing there would be regulatory hurdles to that on both sides of the pond.
Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Fanfiction indeed.
They book manufacturing capacity often years in advance. Samsung is their majority RAM supplier and they reportedly agreed to doubling their price a few months ago.
> Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates.
Hardly. While it may be fan fiction, or speculation, Horace has been researching and writing about Apple's operations for decades. I tried listening to his podcast years ago and the discussion at the time of Apple's supply chain movements was extremely detailed to the point where it wasn't even listenable for me.
"Our team has over 25 years of daily research on Apple Inc"
The author doesn’t seem to understand that Apple places RAM orders years in advance. I’m not sure if it’s even feasible or possible for Apple to fully integrate their supply chain and open up memory fabs, the cost of entry must be enormous.
And by "places orders" we mean "helps TSMC acquire plots of land on which their next facilities will be constructed" kind of level of scope, timing, and commitment.
In my experience, the corporate-speak "partnering with" can mean almost anything.
Apple gives TSMC a billion dollars to build a cutting edge fab dedicated to making Apple's chips, a deal they repeat several times over more than a decade? Partnership.
Youtuber takes $300 to read an ad, giving viewers a 10% discount code? Also a partnership.
There's partnering with Apple for several decades where they plan years in advance and pay billions without fail, and there's partnering with OpenAI where Sam Altman commits to giving you a Trillion dollars provided you can deliver all that ram up front and he can give you an IOU he got from Oracle who got it from Nvidia who got it from OpenAI. These are different things.
"So much so that I heard Samsung’s making more money now with memory than Nvidia’s making with their processors."
I loved Asymco during the Apple 2010s run up, but this, inter alia things mentioned in other comments, should give the reader pause and evaluate how much of this is general knowledge x handwaving x vibes versus a practical ground floor understanding in 2026.
It takes billions to tens of billions to setup a fab. It also takes years to get it working. Then when you add in the IP for memory, it pretty much ain't happening.
All the RAM monopoly has to do is wait 3 days before you're producing and drop the price and you're ruined. Meanwhile they've built up a battle chest of hundreds of billions in profits.
China might be the only competition we see come out of this, but only because they are playing the long game and have trillions of US dollars to play the game with.
There are a lot of companies that have billions in cash and are also prodigious buyers of RAM. Companies like Apple, Google, Meta, Nvidia...
Do they want to get into a commodity business like RAM production? Maybe not, but if prices stay high long enough that demand for their products falls off, they might think about it.
I know that I personally and my employer are cutting way back on new technology purchases and squeezing as much as we can out of old equipment due to the cost of RAM and storage now.
And none of these companies are operating their own fabs, that's the problem.
Fabs are a cutthroat business that's very hard to get into. It costs billions of continual investment to stay a float. That's why there's really only about 3 different companies with cutting edge fabs. TSMC, Micron, and Samsung. Even intel, who built a huge portion of their business on cutting edge fab tech, has struggled to keep funding it. AMD got out of the fab business almost a decade ago (spinning off global foundries) and that spin off is no longer cutting edge. AMD uses TSMC.
Fabs are some of the most expensive factories to operate on this planet due to a constant need for brand new equipment and cutting edge research. That's why there's not an Apple, Google, Meta, or Nvidia fab. That's why there's not an AMD fab. That's why Intel fabs are treading water.
Without the constant investment, you very quickly find yourself in the company of yet another cutthroat industry, the "not cutting edge" fabrication industry. And that, by and large, has already been locked up by about a dozen fab companies.
I've made this same argument so let me make a counter-argument:
There are some ways to get this off the ground much quicker. One or more companies could buy an existing non-leading-edge fab like GlobalFoundaries. That buys a lot of expertise so you're not starting from zero.
DRAM also benefits from being very regular and relatively simple. It used to be what you bring up on a new process node to help prove things out.
It also isn't impossible to reduce reliance on ASML if you're willing to throw money at it. That's definitely a super-long-game move but it could be done.
I'm not going to argue that someone is going to do any of this but if demand is sustained it is possible.
It does help, but I have to wonder how many people are still working at glofo currently who are researching node shrinks. They stopped their research into the 7nm process in 2018 and all the indications are that they aren't really continuing it.
Meanwhile, I believe SOTA is at least 3 or 4 node shrinks beyond that 7nm process. It'll take years for them to catch up to where micron is currently.
And a 64G DDR5 ECC DIMM costs $3K and is backordered. If ths isn't a bubble and demand persists, some new players are eventually going to want a cut of that.
We aren't talking about making new lug-nuts. A company can't just will a fab into existence.
For example, Micron is actively building a few new fabs. One of which has been in progress since Biden (pretty close to my home in fact). It's not going to be completed for another 5 years at a minimum. And this is a company that has the experience and partnerships for producing fabs.
Yes, a new company might decide they want to enter the market, but even if they decided, today, "Yes we'll do this" I'd expect a minimum of a decade before they start spinning out their first chips. That's also at least a $1T investment at this point to get started.
> And this is a company that has the experience and partnerships for producing fabs.
Not even they necessarily have the experience to do it! Intel has a policy called "Copy EXACTLY!" for fab construction where they make every irrelevant detail the same as their last fab, because they don't actually know which of the details matter.
So yea, Samsung built a chip factory pretty close to where I live. Number one it is forking gigantic. You don't just slap one of these babies down. Next, the equipment that goes inside of that massive clean room building is a problem in itself. That takes years to get ordered, then years to ensure it works right, with employees that have a very particular skill set.
Again, people might want part of it, but they are also a bit smarter than you are and read history books to see exactly how this is going to play out and then they gladly walk away before they light their money on fire.
Absolutely. "If this isn't a bubble and demand persists" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, though, and it may be some time before manufacturers decide that's the case.
The thing is, pretty much everyone relevant assumes it is a bubble and that eventually large players will end up facing mob justice. That's why the hundreds of billions of $ IOUs are getting passed around like hot potatoes, and that's (in addition to ASML, the key part of anything EUV lithography, being booked out for years) why no one is planning to construct dozens of billions of dollars worth of fabs.
In addition, the know-how is concentrated in Taiwan. You literally can't train enough people in enough time to move everything out of there.
They sit on billions because they avoid spending their money as much as possible.
The amount they spend on RAM in surrounding few years would represent almost nothing to the massive money hole that would happen if they tried to make their own fab.
Also, these problems tend to affect the entire market, which means if you're big, you're fine. It's when problems don't affect your competitors but affect you that the real issues for these companies crop up.
It might take a while but Chinese companies will figure out/steal/innovate into the right IP for different memory types and will cut out the American patents, ASML and East Asian fabs middle man.
I can’t wait for times when I can afford chips from less than 8 years ago.
The problem is every twenty years or so DRAM makers get burned by building for demand that mostly disappears overnight. They've been through it enough times that they're going to be really reluctant to build new fabs. They'll certainly put some effort into getting the absolute most out of their existing installations, but I would be surprised if you see a lot of new fabs until they decide the demand is durable.
The only thing that can actually introduce competition in RAM is some form of government backing around national security concerns. China has been doing this for some time though so there will probably be major Chinese supply coming in the medium term.
Real life is not SimCity, you can't just plonk more RAM factories like that. It takes an ungodly amount of capital investment, many years before you see a cent in return, plus there's only a couple firms worldwide that can do it in the first place.
Just a thought - stop bloody soldering the RAM and the SSDs. That partially transfers the burden on to the customers and makes their product more repairable ... Mac Minis (with un-soldered RAM and HDD / SSDs) used to be sold with minimum 4 GB RAM, if I remember right). This, way, you can still sell devices with lower RAM, and customers can upgrade in the future when supply increases.
It takes up more space and costs more (connectors are surprisingly expensive), as well as adding an electrical overhead, while most (yes, not all) customers don't take advantage of it.
100% agree the problem is modular RAM can't handle the timings of the SoC.
There is a new modular RAM standard for precisely that but knowing Apple they will want to make their own.
SSD should be easy but since RAM does not last that much longer you still need to resolder that after 5-10 years!
Another problem is locked hardware. Newest Synology hardware has lifted the HDD locks but still doesn't allow third party SSD and RAM. Mac Mini storage upgrade is a DIY solution, why not use the standard M.2 2230 slot?
> Newest Synology hardware has lifted the HDD locks but still doesn't allow third party SSD and RAM.
True of NVMe SSDs, but SATA SSDs are no problem.
My Guess
* Absorb the impact by some margin * Slash base models (which they are already doing) * Efficient software - So, end user experience is not affected. * Direct Price hike always be an option.
I think it's kind of inevitable for somebody to take up a RAM factory to sell for normal consumers and brands even if it means less profit the sales would be much bigger. The question is if somebody is kind enough to do so.
Got a shitty PC with 32gb ddr5 now the ram alone is almost worth as much as the purchase price of it all. It is playing up.. normally I'd return it to Amazon but...
I wonder if companies like Apple will eventually start making memory themselves.
But memory is a quite a specialist manufacturing process, they couldn't just send a design to TSMC and get the same quality and cost. It would take years (decades) to create their own factories that might be able to produce competitive memory. If they use a third party to manufacture with existing skills (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron etc) they might as well just use their designs too (and buy their chips)
I would suspect at Apple scale it makes sense.
Apple has started making a lot of different things in house, its only a matter of time imo.
I doubt they want to make a commodity.
But who knows. Their unified memory architecture across core types already puts them in a different design space. Maybe that design space leads them to further opportunities for memory architecture differentiation.
I could see them (1) taking the two processing chips that make up an Ultra in coming generations, (2) fabbed with logic on top, and power distributed on the back side, as Intel is going for, and (3) sandwiching the logic sides around a layer of unified RAM, with (4) massive optical linking distributed across the surfaces, resulting in (5) unbelievable bandwidths and parallelism we couldn't dream of today.
And then, (6) announcing it at WWDC 2029 and (7) taking my money 5 minutes after the midnight when pre-order's start.
(5.5) cool the whole thing in a way nobody else manages because of their vertical integration.
Or they can go to existing manufacturers with bags of money and have the experts build them their own production lines, and secure the supply.
This is probably the natural conclusion but it will take some time to get there
in a sense that's exactly what cartel wants - to lure out investments that will get squashed into uselessness by supply flood that will follow
The key is Apple can be their own customer and just not care anymore.
It’ll probably only be worth it if it enables something “new” like more bigger Ultra chips or something.
Who is the cartel?
SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron?
They should be banned.
they blew it! They could have bought Intel for cheap and made memory AND CPUs!
Apple knows better than to buy a pile of incompetent smugs. Intel was rock bottom before Europe determined it was a “strategic move”[1] to buy factories in Europe from the only manufacturer that hasn’t innovated since 20 years, quickly followed by the US. In both cases, governments aren’t the most savvy spenders.
[1] A “strategic” expense is named like this when you can’t justify it by any rational means.
Ex-Apple kernel engineer here, Apple will deal with the memory shortage by making software more efficient in ram usage. Apple will just make every aspect of the system more and more memory efficient. They've done it before over and over and can do it again.
This is a great long term strategy despite what the share holders would want to believe. If you increase efficiency even on lower end devices, you will get people coming back for more. It isn't the sale today, it is the sale tomorrow that matters.
I read this as satire.
I've been running an M1 Air w/ 8GB for a few years, and it's still working fine.
Me too but the latest macOS version has ruined it for me, I had to switch back to a previous version.
can you still go online with it? do you have access to security updates?
Apple provides security updates for the current and two prior versions of macOS. Occasionally, critical updates for older versions.
Because
With no memory balooning device in sight for macOS virtual machines I don't really see Apple moving in that direction.
i wonder if this is the real reason behind the push for the snow leopard like release this year
Apple? Sure. What about other developers? Firefox, Chrome already use gigabytes of RAM.
It's the websites that use that RAM, not the browsers.
(Often the ads on the websites.)
Browsers still have a lot of memory usage on their own.
I am running Arch Linux here. When I boot my machine into a full desktop environment it uses 1.1 GB of memory total, for everything.
If I open Firefox, it in itself uses about 1.3 GB to have Firefox open with just HackerNews in 1 tab. I have no extensions except uBlock Origin.
And it’s the applications using web browsers as their UI kit that are the worst offenders in my experience.
I disagree, there is low-hanging fruit Firefox is leaving on the table. The main thing that comes to mind is tab unloading. They don't unload tabs automatically like chrome can.
I was pleasantly surprised at the tab unloading settings under "memory saver" in ungoogled-chromium.
Firefox has been unloading tabs for several months or so (at least on nightly).
I believe that Firefox does it but not as frequently as Chrome does, but don't quote me on it. However, I am using a "tab suspender" addon on firefox to control how fast the unloading happens on tabs that are not active.
Suddenly Safari can surge ahead again!
welcome to the rust community
Fortunately, Apple devices only run approved software. Google will be forced to optimize memory or become unavailable on those devices.
Signed software. Not approved software. Mac apps can be installed after being downloaded from the web.
And as if Apple would ever block/pull/disapprove the world’s most popular browser.
Aren't they actually blocking alternative browser engines on IOS still?
Yes
They won’t be able to do that for AI models, because they suck at AI.
This reads like Apple fanfiction to me.
> But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rate, then maybe we won’t work with you when all this settles down. You know things are going to settle down. These things are always cyclical. There’s never been a semiconductor boom that’s not followed by a semiconductor bust. Never. And they know it.
I have to think that the RAM suppliers wouldn't be that easy to intimidate with threats, since they know perfectly well how few alternatives Apple has. And they are also perfectly aware that Apple will play hardball with them when the market turns, regardless of whether they were nice to Apple now.
Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.
They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.
No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this.
Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.
RAM prices surging in the AI hype era does not mean they'll stay there for decades (see xAI already letting one data center go), and it would take a long time for Apple to become competitive.
Should they also start CPU fabs? Batteries? Lithium mines?
SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.
We don’t know if SpaceX’s plan will actually work, they announced it this year and it is a long-timeline Musk project. These have… mixed results.
yeah. right after tesla self-driving.
that's crazy. Looks like Intel is part of this https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/intel-...
They can’t.
Operating a FAB requires employing PhDs that are willing to work 8 hours shifts with no breaks (each removal of a bunnysuit is an expensive exercise), and there’s no reason to believe SpaceX is capable of hiring such people.
There was a point made recently by Musk that the whole clean room idea is outdated if you can just ensure the path the silicon takes from wafer to lidding is clean. Seems solvable to me, but leaves me wondering why it hasn’t been done before. I assume there is no human handling of raw/etched silicon now anyway, so why does the whole room need to be clean?
hmm yeah. its cool that musk knows more about this than the entire industry
You could probably apply that logic to any innovation in any industry no?
Reusable rockets likely got the same ridicule, as did fast satellite internet, self driving and fully electric vehicles.
I can understand that Musk does not have the most palatable personality, but floating ideas and at least attempting innovation regardless of outcome over a long time is a net positive for society and should not be discouraged.
> self driving
Aren't we still waiting for that?
think different
It wouldn’t be the first time an industry got bogged down by prior knowledge. Hell, it happens to all of us.
In the Tim Cook era when Apple needs to lock down the supply of a commodity part, they have a history of buying a dedicated manufacturing line for a manufacturing partner.
DRAM fabs are their own well-known specialized process which is covered by the DRAM companies. It doesn't make sense to start a competitor for it.
There's a bunch of chinese DRAM companies currently playing catchup to get closer to modern densities. Could Apple buy one of those? I'm guessing there would be regulatory hurdles to that on both sides of the pond.
Apple never bought a manufacturer, or built such capabilities.
They buy and build manufacturing capacity, and there’s also a huge shortage in that today.
Which is funny, since until relatively recently DRAM was what you produced in fabs with processes that weren't competitive enough for CPUs anymore.
It's crazy to think Apple would actually fab memory (or TSMC for that matter). It's an entirely different process than logic.
They probably could, but time is a big factor.
Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Fanfiction indeed.
They book manufacturing capacity often years in advance. Samsung is their majority RAM supplier and they reportedly agreed to doubling their price a few months ago.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-12...
The original article is baseless speculation proven wrong by news announced in February.
> Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates.
Hardly. While it may be fan fiction, or speculation, Horace has been researching and writing about Apple's operations for decades. I tried listening to his podcast years ago and the discussion at the time of Apple's supply chain movements was extremely detailed to the point where it wasn't even listenable for me.
"Our team has over 25 years of daily research on Apple Inc"
https://asymco.com/about/
It's literally all they do
Their best strategy is to buy Micron Semiconductor 12 months ago with cash equivalents on hand, for $106 billion.
No brainer. Best move they will ever did.
If Tim Apple can't beg China for more while in Beijing then I guess they need to port SoftRAM 95 to OSX.
Maybe even MagnaRAM after that. It had a crocodile on the advert.
This makes me wonder when we'll start trading memory on the commodities markets.
Can't even find a ddr2 sodimm that's not a ripoff.
The author doesn’t seem to understand that Apple places RAM orders years in advance. I’m not sure if it’s even feasible or possible for Apple to fully integrate their supply chain and open up memory fabs, the cost of entry must be enormous.
And by "places orders" we mean "helps TSMC acquire plots of land on which their next facilities will be constructed" kind of level of scope, timing, and commitment.
Yes I believe that’s what being a manufacturer partner entails
In my experience, the corporate-speak "partnering with" can mean almost anything.
Apple gives TSMC a billion dollars to build a cutting edge fab dedicated to making Apple's chips, a deal they repeat several times over more than a decade? Partnership.
Youtuber takes $300 to read an ad, giving viewers a 10% discount code? Also a partnership.
There's partnering with Apple for several decades where they plan years in advance and pay billions without fail, and there's partnering with OpenAI where Sam Altman commits to giving you a Trillion dollars provided you can deliver all that ram up front and he can give you an IOU he got from Oracle who got it from Nvidia who got it from OpenAI. These are different things.
TSMC doesn't make RAM do they?
Fair, and I meant it as illustrative of partner depth generally rather than as a specific example around RAM.
Less APP, more LLM
What?
E=MC^2+AI
"So much so that I heard Samsung’s making more money now with memory than Nvidia’s making with their processors."
I loved Asymco during the Apple 2010s run up, but this, inter alia things mentioned in other comments, should give the reader pause and evaluate how much of this is general knowledge x handwaving x vibes versus a practical ground floor understanding in 2026.
Our problem is lack of competition
No, it's the time, effort, and capital necessary to build cutting edge semiconductor fabs. Measured in tens of billions of dollars and decades.
High prices for RAM should attract competition.
In general, no.
It takes billions to tens of billions to setup a fab. It also takes years to get it working. Then when you add in the IP for memory, it pretty much ain't happening.
All the RAM monopoly has to do is wait 3 days before you're producing and drop the price and you're ruined. Meanwhile they've built up a battle chest of hundreds of billions in profits.
China might be the only competition we see come out of this, but only because they are playing the long game and have trillions of US dollars to play the game with.
There are a lot of companies that have billions in cash and are also prodigious buyers of RAM. Companies like Apple, Google, Meta, Nvidia...
Do they want to get into a commodity business like RAM production? Maybe not, but if prices stay high long enough that demand for their products falls off, they might think about it.
I know that I personally and my employer are cutting way back on new technology purchases and squeezing as much as we can out of old equipment due to the cost of RAM and storage now.
And none of these companies are operating their own fabs, that's the problem.
Fabs are a cutthroat business that's very hard to get into. It costs billions of continual investment to stay a float. That's why there's really only about 3 different companies with cutting edge fabs. TSMC, Micron, and Samsung. Even intel, who built a huge portion of their business on cutting edge fab tech, has struggled to keep funding it. AMD got out of the fab business almost a decade ago (spinning off global foundries) and that spin off is no longer cutting edge. AMD uses TSMC.
Fabs are some of the most expensive factories to operate on this planet due to a constant need for brand new equipment and cutting edge research. That's why there's not an Apple, Google, Meta, or Nvidia fab. That's why there's not an AMD fab. That's why Intel fabs are treading water.
Without the constant investment, you very quickly find yourself in the company of yet another cutthroat industry, the "not cutting edge" fabrication industry. And that, by and large, has already been locked up by about a dozen fab companies.
I've made this same argument so let me make a counter-argument:
There are some ways to get this off the ground much quicker. One or more companies could buy an existing non-leading-edge fab like GlobalFoundaries. That buys a lot of expertise so you're not starting from zero.
DRAM also benefits from being very regular and relatively simple. It used to be what you bring up on a new process node to help prove things out.
It also isn't impossible to reduce reliance on ASML if you're willing to throw money at it. That's definitely a super-long-game move but it could be done.
I'm not going to argue that someone is going to do any of this but if demand is sustained it is possible.
It does help, but I have to wonder how many people are still working at glofo currently who are researching node shrinks. They stopped their research into the 7nm process in 2018 and all the indications are that they aren't really continuing it.
Meanwhile, I believe SOTA is at least 3 or 4 node shrinks beyond that 7nm process. It'll take years for them to catch up to where micron is currently.
And a 64G DDR5 ECC DIMM costs $3K and is backordered. If ths isn't a bubble and demand persists, some new players are eventually going to want a cut of that.
We aren't talking about making new lug-nuts. A company can't just will a fab into existence.
For example, Micron is actively building a few new fabs. One of which has been in progress since Biden (pretty close to my home in fact). It's not going to be completed for another 5 years at a minimum. And this is a company that has the experience and partnerships for producing fabs.
Yes, a new company might decide they want to enter the market, but even if they decided, today, "Yes we'll do this" I'd expect a minimum of a decade before they start spinning out their first chips. That's also at least a $1T investment at this point to get started.
> And this is a company that has the experience and partnerships for producing fabs.
Not even they necessarily have the experience to do it! Intel has a policy called "Copy EXACTLY!" for fab construction where they make every irrelevant detail the same as their last fab, because they don't actually know which of the details matter.
So yea, Samsung built a chip factory pretty close to where I live. Number one it is forking gigantic. You don't just slap one of these babies down. Next, the equipment that goes inside of that massive clean room building is a problem in itself. That takes years to get ordered, then years to ensure it works right, with employees that have a very particular skill set.
Again, people might want part of it, but they are also a bit smarter than you are and read history books to see exactly how this is going to play out and then they gladly walk away before they light their money on fire.
Absolutely. "If this isn't a bubble and demand persists" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, though, and it may be some time before manufacturers decide that's the case.
The thing is, pretty much everyone relevant assumes it is a bubble and that eventually large players will end up facing mob justice. That's why the hundreds of billions of $ IOUs are getting passed around like hot potatoes, and that's (in addition to ASML, the key part of anything EUV lithography, being booked out for years) why no one is planning to construct dozens of billions of dollars worth of fabs.
In addition, the know-how is concentrated in Taiwan. You literally can't train enough people in enough time to move everything out of there.
> concentrated in Taiwan
Where are SK Hynix and Samsung located again? Or 95% of Micron's facilities?
>a lot of companies that have billions in cash
They sit on billions because they avoid spending their money as much as possible.
The amount they spend on RAM in surrounding few years would represent almost nothing to the massive money hole that would happen if they tried to make their own fab.
Also, these problems tend to affect the entire market, which means if you're big, you're fine. It's when problems don't affect your competitors but affect you that the real issues for these companies crop up.
Chinese DRAM production is already getting ready to ramp up.
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/hp-reportedly...
It might take a while but Chinese companies will figure out/steal/innovate into the right IP for different memory types and will cut out the American patents, ASML and East Asian fabs middle man.
I can’t wait for times when I can afford chips from less than 8 years ago.
If we assume a spherical cow!
The problem is every twenty years or so DRAM makers get burned by building for demand that mostly disappears overnight. They've been through it enough times that they're going to be really reluctant to build new fabs. They'll certainly put some effort into getting the absolute most out of their existing installations, but I would be surprised if you see a lot of new fabs until they decide the demand is durable.
The only thing that can actually introduce competition in RAM is some form of government backing around national security concerns. China has been doing this for some time though so there will probably be major Chinese supply coming in the medium term.
Real life is not SimCity, you can't just plonk more RAM factories like that. It takes an ungodly amount of capital investment, many years before you see a cent in return, plus there's only a couple firms worldwide that can do it in the first place.
build a fab!
buy an Intel!